ASX 200 Technical Analysis: Key Market Signal — But Is It Bullish? | Episode 303 (October 2025)

By Jason McIntosh | 24 October 2025

ASX 200 technical analysis this week looks quiet on the surface, but the internals tell a bigger story. The index has held recent gains after rallying off the 50-day moving average, while Financials build a base and Materials break out of a multi-year range. Here’s what that mix means for the weeks ahead—and how persistent US bearish sentiment fits into the global picture.

ASX 200: Dips Keep Getting Bought

• The index rallied from the 50-day MA two weeks ago and has kept most of those gains—classic “buy-the-dip” behaviour in an uptrend.
• Structure remains bullish: price above rising 50/100-day MAs and a sustained sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• In uptrends, sideways pauses near rising MAs typically resolve to new highs; the opposite tends to occur beneath declining MAs.

Positioning principle: Align with the prevailing trend, focus on stocks in strong uptrends, and use wide trailing stops so consolidations don’t shake you out.

Two Heavyweights Driving the Tape

Financials: Coiling on Support

• After ~2 months of sideways consolidation along the 50/100-day MAs, Financials have kicked higher.
• It’s not a decisive breakout yet—price paused near last week’s high—but the platform looks solid.
• A daily close above last Thursday’s high would likely re-engage momentum and feed directly into the ASX 200.

Materials: Breakout After a 3-Year Range

• Materials staged a strong rally off the 50-day MA through mid-September and cleared a multi-year range on the weekly chart.
• This week’s pullback is healthy digestion after a big run; it helps the trend become sustainable.
• Near-term: room for more consolidation, but probabilities favour higher levels in coming months.

Bottom line for Australia: With Financials basing and Materials breaking out, the backdrop is constructive. The ASX 200 may chop sideways while leadership firms, but the sensitivity is still to the upside.

S&P 500: Near Highs… with Bears Still Crowded

• The sharp down-day from two weeks ago is already fading on the chart—typical of uptrends that hand us periodic fear spikes.
• Structure remains bullish: price above rising 50/100-day MAs and a clear staircase of higher highs/lows.
• Equal-Weight S&P 500 has rallied smartly off its 100-day MA after ~2 months of sideways work—evidence of broad participation, not just mega-caps.

Sentiment & Seasonality

• AAII survey remains unusually pessimistic given prices near highs (bears still elevated, bulls below average).
• Historically, persistent scepticism in a bullish structure is fuel, not a top signal.
• With November often a seasonally strong month, the odds lean toward trend continuation—while still allowing for periodic shakeouts.

US playbook: Respect the uptrend, don’t chase extended names, and trade breakouts successfully from sound bases. Trailing stops define the exit so headlines don’t.

Key Takeaways

• ASX 200: Holding gains after a 50-day MA rebound = buyers in control.
• Financials: Base forming; a push above last Thursday’s high would confirm breakout.
• Materials: Weekly range break; short-term pullback is constructive.
• S&P 500: Near highs with bearish sentiment still elevated—historically bullish, but expect chop.
• Strategy: Stay long the trend, favour high-quality breakouts, and keep wide trailing stops.

👉 For a deeper dive into technical analysis, check out our Weekly Strategy Sessions.

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Video Timestamps

00:00 Intro

00:40 ASX 200: Key signal in latest price action (but is it bullish?)

02:20 Trend analysis 101 – seemingly obvious, but many get it wrong

04:10 This is what the trend is signaling now

04:50 Two key sectors that could drive the next big move

08:05 I’m positioning my portfolio like this

09:10 S&P 500’s seeds fear and doubt with big down days

10:55 This group of stocks has a classic set-up

13:20 You must see what this survey says now

14:50 If you’re bearish, beware of THIS

Jason McIntosh | Founder, Motion Trader

Jason’s professional trading career began over 3 decades ago. He’s a founder of two stock advisory firms, a listed funds management business, and has helped thousands of investors navigate the stock market. Click here to read Jason’s incredible story of, at age 20, sitting alongside some of the world’s greatest traders (and the life changing experience that came with that).