ASX 200 Technical Analysis: Outlook, Pullback Risks & S&P 500 Insights (August 2025) | Episode 295

By Jason McIntosh | 29 August 2025

ASX 200: Rare August Surge and a Pullback Risk

The ASX 200 has staged an exceptional August rally, pushing to fresh all-time highs. In this week’s ASX 200 technical analysis, I’ll explain why the trend remains strong, what the risks of a pullback look like, and how smart investors are approaching the market. I’ll also share insights on the S&P 500, small caps, and key commodities shaping global sentiment.

The ASX 200 has delivered a remarkable performance in August, notching a 4.9% gain from its monthly low to its recent high. That’s unusual in a month that’s historically among the market’s weakest.

From April’s low, the rally now totals an exceptional 25% gain in just a few months. Along the way, every dip has been short and shallow, as investors scramble to re-enter after the April panic.

But now the index is pulling back from a record high. The big question: Is this just a healthy pause, or the start of something bigger?

Key Takeaways:

• The ASX 200 recently stretched to around 4% above its 50-day moving average.
• Historically, this level often precedes a cooling-off period or multi-week consolidation.
• Rather than panic, smart investors treat consolidations as part of a sustainable uptrend.

👉 Learn more about how to identify strong uptrends.

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Equal Weight ASX 200: A Sign of Market Health

The ASX 200 Equal Weight Index has been leading the charge. After lagging late last year, it is now outperforming the main index and setting new highs.

This tells us something important:

• The rally is broad-based, not just driven by a handful of large caps.
• Broad participation is a hallmark of a healthy bull market.
• A pullback here would likely be a pause in the trend, not a reversal.

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S&P 500: New Highs and a Sentiment Surprise

Over in the US, the S&P 500 edged to a new all-time high this week, while the Nasdaq remains just below its peak. Price action has been subdued, with the index moving sideways after its latest breakout.

Why This Still Looks Bullish:

• Rising 50- and 100-day moving averages remain intact.
• Clear sequence of higher lows and higher highs continues.
• Consolidation is normal after a strong run — not necessarily a warning sign.

👉 Learn more about moving average trading strategy.

Investor Sentiment Survey

The latest AAII survey produced a surprise:

• Bears continue to outnumber bulls, even at all-time highs.
• Major tops usually form during excessive optimism, not when investors are cautious.

This contrarian signal suggests the market may still have room to run.

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What Smart Investors Are Doing

Here’s the playbook I follow:

1. Stay with the trend — let profits run while the structure remains bullish.
2. Use wide trailing stops — to ride out consolidations but still protect capital if conditions change.
3. View dips as opportunities, not reasons to panic.

In short: Don’t try to outsmart the market by predicting every pullback. Let the trend do the heavy lifting.

👉 For a deeper dive into technical analysis, check out our Weekly Strategy Sessions.

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Video Timestamps

00:00 Intro

00:45 ASX 200’s unusual August surge — what’s behind the rally?

02:50 Key indicator gives an important signal

04:35 What should you do now (I’m doing THIS)

06:45 This index is the key to the coming months

09:15 S&P 500 hits a record high (but are warning signs emerging?)

11:00 Don’t get caught out like these people

12:50 Look what this index just did (big clue to what’s coming)

13:50 Must-see investor survey — huge surprise

Jason McIntosh | Founder, Motion Trader

Jason’s professional trading career began over 3 decades ago. He’s a founder of two stock advisory firms, a listed funds management business, and has helped thousands of investors navigate the stock market. Click here to read Jason’s incredible story of, at age 20, sitting alongside some of the world’s greatest traders (and the life changing experience that came with that).