ASX 200: New All-Time High Signals Strength in Uptrend | Episode 284

By Jason McIntosh | 24 January 2025

The ASX 200 has reached a new all-time high for 2025, continuing its 14-month bullish trend despite recent market pullbacks. While short-term declines often spark fear among investors, history shows that these pullbacks are typically part of a larger uptrend.

With strong buying interest and supportive technical indicators, let’s explore the latest market insights and strategies for navigating the current phase.


Short-Term Pullbacks vs. Long-Term Uptrend

The ASX 200 has now experienced three notable pullbacks over the past year, each roughly 5-6% in size. These occurred in April, July, and December, yet the market rebounded each time.

Key Observations:

  • Market corrections are normal: On average, the ASX 200 experiences three 5% declines per year—yet these often prove to be temporary rather than trend reversals.
  • Selling during short-term dips can be costly: Many investors panic-sell during these pullbacks, only to watch prices stabilize and rally higher.
  • Moving averages confirm the trend: The 50-day and 100-day moving averages have been rising for over a year, reinforcing the market’s underlying strength.

As long as prices remain above rising moving averages, the odds favor that declines are merely pullbacks within a larger bull market.


Stock Selection Matters in Bull Markets

While the ASX 200 is trending higher, not all stocks are moving in the same direction. Some stocks remain in downtrends or range-bound markets, which is why selective stock-picking is essential.

How to Maximise Gains in a Bull Market:

  1. Identify stocks already trending higher—these typically offer some of the best return potential.
  2. Avoid stocks stuck in downtrends or trading ranges—even in bull markets, not every stock benefits.
  3. Use a systematic approach to select the strongest candidates while managing risk.

Equal-Weighted ASX 200: A Healthy Market Signal

Examining the equal-weighted ASX 200 (where all stocks carry the same weight, rather than being dominated by a few large companies) offers another perspective on market health.

Key Observations:

  • Strong rally from January lows: The equal-weight index has moved from a vulnerable position to reinforcing the broader bullish trend.
  • Breakout from consolidation: After briefly consolidating last week, the index pushed higher, signaling continued buying strength.
  • False breakdown recovery: The equal-weight index briefly broke below its November low but found immediate support—suggesting sellers lacked conviction and buyers stepped in aggressively.

These technical developments further confirm that the market’s strength is broad-based, not just driven by a handful of large-cap stocks.


How to Navigate This Market

  1. Stay Aligned with the Trend: The ASX 200 remains in an established uptrend, making it a favorable environment for long positions.
  2. Select Stocks with Momentum: Focus on stocks that are already trending higher rather than attempting to predict turnarounds in struggling stocks.
  3. Use Trailing Stops: These allow you to ride winning positions while locking in profits and protecting against trend reversals.
  4. Remain Disciplined: Avoid emotional decisions during short-term dips—market noise can often lead to premature exits.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • The ASX 200 has hit a new all-time high, reinforcing the long-term bullish trend.
  • Short-term declines are normal but are often followed by recoveries and higher prices.
  • Market breadth remains strong, with the equal-weighted ASX 200 confirming the bullish outlook.
  • A disciplined, trend-following strategy helps investors maximize gains and manage risk effectively.

Final Thoughts

The ASX 200 remains in a strong uptrend, with both price action and underlying technicals supporting higher levels ahead. While short-term pullbacks will continue to occur, history suggests that these are opportunities rather than warning signs. Staying focused, selective, and disciplined in stock selection while using trailing stops ensures that investors can participate in the long-term trend while effectively managing risk.

At Motion Trader, we provide a systematic, rules-based approach to help investors capitalise on rising trends while protecting against downside risks. In markets like this, letting the trend work in your favor can be the key to long-term success.

👉 For a deeper dive into technical analysis, check out our Weekly Strategy Sessions.


Motion Trader‘s algorithms scan more than 2,000 ASX stocks daily in search of medium term investment trends. We then tell our members precisely when to buy shares. And most importantly, we tell them when to sell.

Try a no obligation FREE 14-day trial of Motion Trader, and see what an algorithmic trading approach could do for you.

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Video Timestamps

00:00 Intro

00:45 ASX 200 at all-time-highs (but is there more to come?)

02:40 Make sure you remember THIS key chart structure

03:50 This is how to build a strong portfolio in a bull market

04:40 Don’t overlook this key indicator of market strength

06:30 Here’s your roadmap to a classic corrective pattern

09:20 Is this week’s SP500 sell-off about to get worse?

11:20 Many people fall for this common trap (don’t be one of them!)

12:50 Forget the headlines: Make sure you know THIS

Jason McIntosh | Founder, Motion Trader

Jason McIntosh | Founder, Motion Trader

Jason’s professional trading career began over 3 decades ago. He’s a founder of two stock advisory firms, a listed funds management business, and has helped thousands of investors navigate the stock market. Click here to read Jason’s incredible story of, at age 20, sitting alongside some of the world’s greatest traders (and the life changing experience that came with that).

Meet Jason

I'm Jason McIntosh, the creator of Motion Trader. My career began in 1991 on the trading floor at Bankers Trust. Nowadays, I trade my own systems from home in Sydney. 
Motion Trader is for investors who value robust analysis, data driven entry and exit signals, commentary, and education. I use engineered algorithms to identify when to buy and sell ASX stocks. No biases or guesswork, just data driven signals.