ASX 200 Technical Analysis: Longest Pullback Since April? | Episode 299 (September 2025)

By Jason McIntosh | 26 September 2025

ASX 200 Technical Analysis: Longest Pullback Since April?

The ASX 200 technical analysis this week highlights the index consolidating around the 50-day moving average after its sharpest decline since April. The question now: how much longer could this pause last, and is a deeper pullback ahead?

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What the price action is saying

The ASX 200 has retraced about 3.5% from August’s all-time high, finding support at the 50-day MA while holding above the 100-day MA.

This behaviour suggests classic “buy-the-dip” action rather than trend failure. However, without strong upside momentum, the market may need more time to base.

Key support sits near 8,600 — a level aligning with February and June highs, as well as the July consolidation base. As long as this zone holds, the pullback remains shallow and constructive. A break below would raise the risk of a deeper decline.

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Rare weekly RSI signal

Last week we discussed the Relative Strength Index (RSI). On the weekly chart, RSI surged above 70 then reversed — a signal last seen in 2021.

Historically, this pattern often reverts back toward the 50 level. If repeated, the ASX 200 could spend several more weeks consolidating before resuming higher.

• In 2021, this setup led to a longer, choppier correction.
• In 2013, it resolved with only a pause before new highs.

Today’s structure suggests the latter outcome is more likely, but patience is key.

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Equal Weight ASX 200: Broad market still strong

The ASX 200 Equal Weight Index continues to outperform, remaining above its 50-day MA and even printing fresh all-time highs this week.

This divergence highlights a healthy broader market, not just mega caps leading.

👉 Learn more about spotting stocks in strong uptrends — a key trait of sustainable bull markets.

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How to position

• Stay aligned with the prevailing uptrend.
• Avoid chasing extended leaders.
• Use wide trailing stops to ride consolidations without being shaken out.

👉 See our guide on trading breakouts successfully for more ways to manage entries and exits.

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S&P 500 Technical Analysis: New Highs, But Consolidating

The S&P 500 just logged its 28th all-time high this year before pulling back. On the surface, this looks like another pause in a bullish sequence.

Key markers remain positive:

• Price above rising 50- and 100-day MAs
• Clear ladder of higher highs and higher lows

Yet, the Equal Weight S&P 500 broke lower from a September consolidation, returning to its 50-day MA. This shows the broader market isn’t quite ready to accelerate again.

Still, retests of moving averages are normal in uptrends. Until there’s evidence of trend damage, history suggests new highs are likely later in the year.

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Key Takeaways

• ASX 200: Longest pullback since April, stabilising at the 50-day MA. RSI suggests more consolidation is possible, but trend remains bullish.
• Equal Weight ASX 200: Fresh highs confirm broad participation.
• S&P 500: 28 all-time highs in 2025 so far. Current pause looks normal within an ongoing bullish cycle.

Strategy: Stay long with wide trailing stops, be patient during consolidations, and let the market confirm its next move.

👉 For a deeper dive into technical analysis, check out our Weekly Strategy Sessions.

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Motion Trader‘s algorithms scan more than 2,000 ASX stocks daily in search of medium term investment trends. We then tell our members precisely when to buy shares. And most importantly, we tell them when to sell.

Try a no obligation FREE 14-day trial of Motion Trader, and see what an algorithmic trading approach could do for you.

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Video Timestamps

00:00 Intro

00:40 ASX 200: Why a rally is unlikely now

03:50 Key support to watch – a break could lead to THIS

05:20 Look what this indicator is doing (history says….)

06:50 ASX Equal Weight provides big clue to what happens next

10:15 S&P 500 retreats from record high (is it a warning?)

11:20 Many people make this mistake

13:00 Breakdown in key index – what it means

14:20 This is what matters most for my portfolio

Jason McIntosh | Founder, Motion Trader

Jason’s professional trading career began over 3 decades ago. He’s a founder of two stock advisory firms, a listed funds management business, and has helped thousands of investors navigate the stock market. Click here to read Jason’s incredible story of, at age 20, sitting alongside some of the world’s greatest traders (and the life changing experience that came with that).