ASX 200 Technical Analysis: Critical Support — Will It Hold or Break? | Episode 305 (November 2025)
By Jason McIntosh | 7 November 2025
ASX 200 Technical Analysis: Critical Support — Will It Hold or Break?
The ASX 200 has given back more ground and is now testing the 100-day moving average for the first time since April’s advance began. This is a natural spot for a pause or a turn—but what happens next hinges on follow-through buying and a key cluster of support near 8,600. Here’s how I’m viewing the next couple of weeks, and why US breadth and sentiment still matter.
ASX 200: Two paths from critical support
- What just happened: After holding gains along the 50-day MA, the index slipped to the 100-day MA and briefly probed September’s low before bouncing.
- Why it matters: A single up-day is encouraging, but it needs follow-through back above the 50-day MA to claim real credibility.
Bullish scenario (higher probability while MAs rise):
- Rebound off the 100-day MA → reclaim the 50-day MA
- Sideways consolidation between the October high and this week’s low for a few weeks
- Platform for a push higher into late November/December
Bearish “risk” scenario (structure weakens):
- Breaks and sustains below ~8,600 (prior ATH cluster: Feb high, June secondary high, July support)
- Consolidates below the 100-day MA; MAs begin to roll over
Key line in the sand: ~8,600. Above it, dips still look like consolidation in an uptrend. Below it, the odds shift toward a deeper correction.
If you’d like to see how I use breakouts to identify new trends, check out this guide to ASX Breakout Trading Strategy.
Equal-Weight ASX 200: A historic run meets a normal pause
The equal-weight version has finally returned to its 100-day MA after ~132 days above it—the longest such stretch since this data series began (2018). That underscores how strong the last six months have been and why a pullback here is not surprising.
- Big runs tend to end with consolidation, not necessarily trend failure.
- The underlying (rising) MAs still bias the outlook up unless we start living below them.
Positioning: Rules first, opinions second
I remain constructively positioned overall. I’ve sold stocks that hit stops and bought others that triggered new entries. The process is the same: take risk with a plan, and let wide trailing stops manage the unknowns.
You can also read my guide on How to Identify Stocks in Strong Uptrends to see how these setups develop in real time.
US Market: Pullback restores balance; breadth is the unlock
- S&P 500 & Nasdaq: Pulling back toward the broader market after big-cap outperformance—healthy so far within a rising 50- and 100-day MA structure.
- S&P 500 Equal Weight: Range-bound for ~two months and now near its 100-day MA—a typical “buy-the-dip” area if it holds.
- Breadth check: Only ~43% of Russell 3000 stocks are above their 100-day MA. A turn higher in breadth is the catalyst that likely ends consolidation.
Sentiment: A “hated” bull market
A long-view AAII chart (back to 1987) shows persistent bearishness through a year that’s nevertheless delivered above-average gains. Historically, deep pessimism has often preceded strong forward returns. It’s not a timing tool—but it supports staying with the prevailing trend while respecting risk.
What I’m watching next
- ASX 200: Reaction around 8,600 and whether price can reclaim the 50-day MA
- Financials/Materials: Stabilisation would bolster the case for a base
- Equal-Weight indices (AU & US): Holding the 100-day MA
- US Breadth: A bounce in the % of stocks above the 100-day MA
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Q1: What does it mean when the ASX 200 tests the 100-day moving average?
A retest of the 100-day moving average often signals a normal pullback within a broader uptrend. It’s a key test to see if buyers are still supporting the trend.
Q2: Why is 8,600 such an important support level?
This area has acted as both resistance and support in the past — including the February and June highs — making it a strong zone where buyers may step in again.
Q3: What would confirm that the ASX 200 is still in an uptrend?
Follow-through buying that lifts the index back above the 50-day moving average would confirm that the market remains in a bullish consolidation phase.
Q4: What would indicate the start of a deeper correction?
Sustained trading below 8,600 — along with the 100-day MA rolling over — would suggest the pullback is evolving into a more serious correction.
Q5: How does market breadth affect this outlook?
A rise in the number of stocks above their 100-day moving averages (especially in the Russell 3000) would confirm stronger participation and healthier market momentum.
Video Timestamps
00:00 Intro
00:50 ASX 200 nears critical support (prepare for this)
04:00 Make sure you know this key risk level
06:10 Equal Weight index has never done this before
08:10 This is the key takeaway for the local market
10:00 S&P 500 realigns with broader market (should you worry?)
12:00 One of the biggest mistakes people make (I see it all the time)
13:20 Did you see the clue that many people missed?
14:30 This indicator is the key to the next rally
15:30 Must-see graph (and what it points to next year)
Jason McIntosh | Founder, Motion Trader
Jason’s professional trading career began over 3 decades ago. He’s a founder of two stock advisory firms, a listed funds management business, and has helped thousands of investors navigate the stock market. Click here to read Jason’s incredible story of, at age 20, sitting alongside some of the world’s greatest traders (and the life changing experience that came with that).
Meet Jason
I'm Jason McIntosh, the creator of Motion Trader. My career began in 1991 on the trading floor at Bankers Trust. Nowadays, I trade my own systems from home in Sydney.
Motion Trader is for investors who value robust analysis, data driven entry and exit signals, commentary, and education. I use engineered algorithms to identify when to buy and sell ASX stocks. No biases or guesswork, just data driven signals.