ASX 200 Technical Analysis: Breakdown at 8,600 — Risk or Reset? | Episode 305 (November 2025)

By Jason McIntosh | 14 November 2025

ASX 200 Technical Analysis: Breakdown at 8,600 — Risk or Reset?

Quick take: A sharp break pushed the ASX 200 below its 100-day moving average and back to key support near 8,600. That’s an orange flag, not a red one. The next few sessions—especially the quality of any rebound—will tell us if this is a reset within an uptrend or the start of a deeper consolidation.

ASX 200 — what changed and what matters now

• Price closed below the 100-day MA for the first meaningful time since late April/early May.
• Key line in the sand: ~8,600 (Feb ATH + June swing high + July support).
• Two near-term paths:
  1. Sharp reclaim of the 100-day → bullish reset;
  2. Lacklustre bounce that stalls beneath the MAs → raises vulnerability to a lower leg.
• Playbook: be alert, know exits, avoid panic. Pullbacks of ~5–6% from highs have resolved higher several times in the last 18 months.

Related reading: how we buy strength, not weakness — see our
ASX Breakout Strategy and
How to Find ASX Stocks in a Strong Uptrend.

Equal-Weight ASX 200 — broader market still looks like a pullback

The equal-weight index is above last Friday’s low and sitting around its moving averages. That’s consistent with a routine pullback within a rising structure, not a breakdown in market health.

Why the headline index fell harder: banks

Financials—especially CBA—dragged the cap-weighted ASX 200. We’d been primed for an upside break after weeks of sideways action over rising MAs, but no follow-through + a quick drop flipped the near-term tone. Watch the next rebound: stalling below MAs would be the warning that a longer consolidation is forming.

U.S. market check — trend still up, breadth wobbling

• S&P 500: 50- & 100-day MAs are still rising; price remains above them. That’s a bullish structure, even with pullbacks.
• Equal-weight S&P 500: still range-bound; a breakout over the October highs would re-engage the uptrend.
• Breadth (Russell 3000 > 100-DMA): dipped to ~42%, then snapped back to ~52% this week. Too early to call a full reversal, but it’s constructive—more stocks participating helps end consolidations.
• Sentiment (AAII): ~50% bears near all-time highs is unusual; historically, heavy bearishness tends to cluster after declines, not before them—another reason not to overreact.

What I’m doing

I’m staying long with wide trailing stops, trimming only on individual stop triggers, and watching: (1) ASX 200’s ability to reclaim MAs, (2) 8,600 holding, and (3) how financials behave on the rebound.

👉 For a deeper dive into technical analysis, check out our Weekly Strategy Sessions.

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Jason McIntosh | Founder, Motion Trader

Jason’s professional trading career began over 3 decades ago. He’s a founder of two stock advisory firms, a listed funds management business, and has helped thousands of investors navigate the stock market. Click here to read Jason’s incredible story of, at age 20, sitting alongside some of the world’s greatest traders (and the life changing experience that came with that).